🚛 DEMAND & SUPPLY DYNAMICS

The Forces Shaping Your Freight Strategy

DEMAND OUTLOOK: Weak But Stabilizing

Key Factors:

• Tariff impacts expected in H2 2025, limiting demand growth

• Import volumes declining after heavy front-loading

• Manufacturing contracted for six consecutive months

• Consumer spending stable but labor market cooling

• Retail inventory replenishment cycle could provide modest 2026 boost

SUPPLY OUTLOOK: Oversupply With Emerging Risks

Market Conditions:

• Capacity remains abundant despite ongoing carrier financial pressure

• Equipment orders below replacement levels reducing future capacity

• Driver availability constrained by regulatory pressures

• Tender rejections rising during disruptions, signaling tighter conditions

• Carrier attrition accelerating as profitability pressure continues

THE STRATEGIC REALITY: Abundant capacity today, but declining equipment investment and carrier exits create vulnerability to future demand shocks.

🎯 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR BUSINESS

Strategic Positioning for 2026

FOR SHIPPERS:

✅ Contract Stability Advantage – Locked-in contract rates provide security as spot rates gradually rise

✅ Routing Guide Strength – Strong routing guides should hold through H1 2026, supporting consistent capacity

✅ Seasonal Volatility Planning – Brief disruptions around holidays remain primary risk requiring contingency plans

✅ Carrier Partnership Focus – As carriers face profitability pressure, relationship-based capacity becomes more valuable

✅ Flexibility Premium – Shippers offering scheduling flexibility and advance notice will secure better service

THE MOCKINGBIRD ADVANTAGE: As a proud part of Sureway and ATS, we combine 70+ years of market cycle experience with real-time data analytics and strategic carrier relationships. We don't just react to market forecasts—we help you POSITION FOR THEM.

⚠️ FORECAST RISK FACTORS

What Could Change Everything

UPSIDE RISKS (Rate Increases):

• Black swan events creating sudden capacity shortages

• Severe weather disruptions (hurricanes, winter storms)

• Accelerated carrier exits reducing available capacity

• Unexpected demand surges from economic shifts

• Trade policy changes driving import volume spikes

DOWNSIDE RISKS (Rate Decreases):

• Deeper economic slowdown reducing freight volumes

• Manufacturing contraction accelerating

• Consumer spending decline from labor market weakness

• Tariff impacts exceeding current projections

WILD CARDS:

• Global trade policy uncertainty

• Fuel price volatility

• Regulatory changes affecting driver availability

• Interest rate movements impacting construction and durable goods

MOCKINGBIRD RISK MANAGEMENT: Our Sureway and ATS partnership provides nationwide carrier network diversity, backup capacity options, and real-time market monitoring—protecting your freight security REGARDLESS of which risk scenarios materialize.

⛽ OIL MARKET OUTLOOK: Fuel Stability Supports Planning

Energy Forecast Alignment

FUEL MARKET EXPECTATIONS:

The freight forecast aligns with broader energy market projections showing stable to declining fuel expenses through 2026:

• Current forecasts: Brent crude $55-66/barrel range through 2026

• Supply dynamics: Production outpacing demand growth

• Inventory levels: Global surpluses creating downward pressure

• Volatility factors: Geopolitical risks remain but impact has been limited

LOGISTICS IMPACT:

Positive Indicators:

• Stable fuel expenses support carrier margin recovery

• Reduced fuel surcharge volatility improves planning accuracy

• Lower diesel costs may slow carrier exit rate

Strategic Reality:

• Fuel stability helps but doesn't eliminate carrier profitability pressure

• Relationship-based capacity remains more valuable than fuel savings

• Cargo security protocols matter more than fuel economics

MOCKINGBIRD PERSPECTIVE: We monitor fuel markets daily but prioritize carrier relationships, service quality, and cargo security over short-term fuel arbitrage. Your freight protection matters more than fuel surcharge fluctuations.

🔐 CARGO SECURITY IN CHANGING MARKETS

Why Market Conditions Impact Freight Safety

THE CONNECTION:

Tight Capacity Markets =

• Rushed carrier selection decisions

• Less rigorous vetting standards

• Increased freight fraud opportunities

• Higher theft risk during disruptions

Abundant Capacity Markets =

• More carrier options for quality vetting

• Time for thorough credential verification

• Opportunity to build lasting security partnerships

• Proactive fraud prevention protocols

MOCKINGBIRD CARGO SECURITY STANDARD:

✅ Market-Independent Vetting – Our carrier screening standards NEVER compromise regardless of capacity conditions

✅ Verified Credentials – Background checks, insurance verification, safety records on EVERY carrier

✅ Real-Time Monitoring – GPS tracking, communication protocols, and 24/7 visibility on all shipments

✅ Relationship Priority – We work with vetted carriers we KNOW, not whoever answers the phone

✅ Fraud Prevention – Advanced verification systems eliminating risk of fraudulent actors

As a proud part of Sureway and ATS, cargo security is our OBSESSION—not a feature we compromise when markets tighten.